CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA (CVILLE RIGHT NOW) – The Charlottesville area has yet to be touched by tropical cyclone moisture, and a revised AccuWeather tropical season forecast reduces a chance a little bit. However, AccuWeather warns we are by no means at any significantly reduced risk for the remainder of the season. A revised AccuWeather forecast is slightly reducing the potential number of named storms and hurricanes expected to develop this season. The forecast now in the upper range is 16 named storms, as opposed to 17 in their March forecast. The minimum 13 number is down from 14 forecast in March. The revised forecast is 6-to-9 storms forming into hurricanes as opposed to the earlier forecast of 7-to-10. The forecast for three to five major hurricanes and three to six direct impacts to the United States has not changed.
The reason for the slight reduction is a lull in activity right now in what’s supposed to be the peak-of-the-peak of the hurricane season.
“Unusual surges of dry air, Saharan dust, disruptive wind shear, cooler water temperatures off the western coast of Africa, and other atmospheric conditions have hampered multiple tropical waves from developing into tropical storms or hurricanes, during what are typically the peak weeks of tropical activity in the Atlantic basin,” according to AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DeSilva.
AccuWeather notes “here have been two direct impacts to the U.S. so far this year. Tropical Storm Chantal caused an estimated $4 billion to $6 billion in total damage and economic loss, following damaging flooding and tourism losses in North Carolina over the Independence Day holiday weekend. Hurricane Erin brought rough surf, beach erosion and deadly rip currents to the U.S. East Coast in August”.
“Please do not let your guard down or become complacent. The tropics have been unusually quiet during the typical peak weeks of the season, just like they were last year,” DaSilva said. “It is important to remember that Helene and Milton both developed well after the climatological peak of the season last year. Helene caused catastrophic inland flooding. Milton spun up dozens of destructive tornadoes across Florida. Helene and Milton claimed more than 250 lives and caused an estimated $385 billion to $430 billion in total damage and economic loss, according to estimates from AccuWeather.”
AccuWeather meteorologist Brandon Buckingham says as we progress toward late September into October and November, they’re expecting that African dust activity to tamp down and the train of cold fronts that kept our temperatures cooler from late August into early September and created the sheer to break tropical waves up will slow down. So the potential for storm development in the Atlantic is expected to increase during this peak time.
