News

Odds of a Triple Crown winner slim

Odds of a Triple Crown winner slim

CALIFORNIA CHROME:Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner California Chrome pauses as he is hot walked by exercise rider Willie Delgado after jogging at Belmont Park, Monday, June 2, in Elmont, N.Y. California Chrome will attempt to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978 when he races in the 146th running of the Belmont Stakes on Saturday. Photo: Associated Press/Julie Jacobson

AURORA, Colo. (AP) — Here’s a message to horse lovers and dreamers out there: This will not happen to you. Well, almost certainly not.

For all the buzz California Chrome’s feel-good run at the Triple Crown is generating for horse racing, his too-good-to-be-true story has virtually no chance of repeating itself, according to the numbers.

Byron Rogers, whose business is scientifically analyzing genetic makeup of racehorses, puts the odds at 50,000-to-1 against a horse with the strength and stamina of a California Chrome ever showing up again among the 21,000 or so thoroughbred foals born each year.

It’s the sort of horse that shows up maybe once every three years, but even then doesn’t always find his way into the spotlight because success requires a magic mix of the right owner, trainer and opportunity.

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